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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

This is It: Put up or shut up.

We have reached the moment that we have all been waiting for.  11 hours (time of publishing) from the beginning of one of the most important Free Agent periods in NBA History.  Soon and very soon, teams will not be able to feed their fan bases anymore bologna.  It's either you get it done, or your franchise is done.  Toast.  Finito.  Ballgame.  As many of you already know I am a New York Knicks fan.  Since 2008 I have been sifting through blogs, rumor mill websites, magazine publications, and press conference innuendos to try and get some sense or idea of what I could expect from my team on this date.  We've gone through the absolute liquidation of anyone on the roster who makes more than a dollar going into next season (except for Eddy Curry...thanks Zeke).  We are currently going through 3 years (I include this year cause Jordan Hill is a joke who is no longer on the team) of no first round talent in the draft, after giving away our next two picks to the Rockets to clear more cap room.  Most people have compared this free agency period to a game of poker.  With the moves that the Knicks have made through the draft (none), free agency (slim to none) and trades (fire sale) we have pushed all our chips to the center of the table.  D' Antoni said, "We have put all our efforts and focus into this summer, and we aren't bluffing."  Now I have no problem going all in when I play poker, but there is a difference between a poker player of my skill (amazing) going all in and the Knicks going all in.  The difference is, I know whats in my hand before I shove.  What I have been trying to figure out for two years is, what is in the Knicks' hand? 

Lets look around the table.  The Heat have D Wade already in their grasp.  Sure he could leave, but lets face it, he isn't.  They pretty much re-named Dade County "Wade County."  They are also one deal away from equalizing the one advantage the Knicks had going into this: The ability to offer multiple max deals.  We're talking not just two but 3.  He could add any combination of 2 from a list of Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Lebron, Dirk Nowitzki, and Carlos Boozer.  You can even go after guys like Ray Allen and Pierce who may not cost the full max.  The point is going into this game they have a card that other teams can't boast: A Championship winning Dwayne Wade who is willing to share the spotlight and will most likely go on recruiting trips.  Even if they do strike out, conventional knowledge suggests that they keep Wade and even if not, guys will go down there to live, party and (o yea) play in Miami/South Beach.

The Bulls probably have the best young core for these stars to work with.  In the suddenly point guard driven league (to an extent) you have one of the best up and coming ones in Derrick Rose.  Joakim Noah is that scrappy young horse that will do the dirty work (pause).  Taj Gibson shows promise, and if they trade Deng they can open up even more room for players to come and help fill out the roster.  Once again, if they strike out, they still have that young core to continue to build around through the draft and with other lesser-tier free agents.  They are in on this thing, but they wont lose it all if their cards get trumped.

The Nets are one of the more interesting players at the table.  I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that the 12 wins was an aberration with Brook Lopez and Devin Harris being hurt a lot of the year.  Those two boys can flat out play.  The Derrick Favors pick is solid too, and I think he will develop more going forward, as will Terrence Williams.  The looming Brooklyn project (intriguing), the Jay-Z factor (illuminati), and this Prokhorov owner guy (think Mark Cuban International) gives them some street cred and appeal.  If they can plug in a max guy or two with that existing core, watch out.  The "supposed 2 years at the most" Newark Project throws a slight wrench in the plans.  But if guys are thinking big picture, this might be a serious consideration.  Once again if they strike out, they still have a decent core to build around with some randoms that can fill out their rotation.  They wont contend for a title like they've been saying, but down the road when they get Brooklyn jumping, they can make real moves.

There are a couple teams that are looking to go the sign-and-trade route.  This sounds a lot more complicated and sketchy at first, but the team that is most likely to do this is probably Dallas.  They like Miami are the odds on favorite to keep their guy.  Once they re-sign Dirk, he can help them recruit a side kick, or a guy that makes him the best side kick in the league.  They have some attractive pieces to move; Beaubois (spelling), Dampier (Expiring contract), Caron Butler (solid), and Shawn "I used to be the Matrix" Marion (could be good).  If say LeBron wants to leave in good faith and not hang the Cavs out to dry, this would be the most likely suitor.  Think occasional home games in Cowboys stadium with 70,000+ screaming your name (pause).  I'm not saying its likely cause the West road to the Finals is definitely a lot more dicey, but it still has to be an consideration not just for LeBronMelo anybody?).

In conclusion we'll deal with my Knicks.  I have come to the conclusion that we truly are all-or-nothing in this high stakes poker game.  I am excited about the prospects/opportunity of getting two franchise changing players in our uniform.  But as I look around the table I see contingency plans...we supposedly have one but it is over paying and signing Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire.  In other words the Phoenix Suns of the East without Steve Nash.  Why Amare would even do that is a whole 'nother issue.  So where we are now, it really seems like we really don't have a contingency plan.  Lets look at our hand right now: Galinari (great shooter, promising future, but useless on a bad team), Wilson (great all-around player, but again if we're bad it won't matter), Toney Douglas (the jury is still out but could be a great back-up in the league...he's our starter), Bill Walker (an after thought in a Nate Robinson for Eddie House trade...but could be the best player out of that deal, is that saying much though?), Edward Curry (.....), and an unsigned David Lee (he's not worth max money and will prolly ask for more from the Knicks than he's worth while we wait on some max guys, then he'll end up elsewhere, its sad, hope we keep him somehow).  That is it, that is what we are working with.  So we are selling that and some combination of MSG (world's most overrated i mean famous arena), The Empire State Building (didn't know Knicks players got part ownership of that), Some of the greatest eateries, clubs, parties in the world (which he already attends), Mike D'Antoni's system (Great if you don't care about defense, and Celebrity requests (i'm still sort of in the dark on their role in all this).  So on the eve of this monumental day, that is what we have to work with.  I have come to the sad conclusion that we have pushed all our chips to the middle of the table in order to receive what everyone else at the table seems to already have: some meaningful cards.  Lets call this the reverse poker strategy.  For the sake of mine and all Knick fans sanity, and for the sake of the jobs of all the front office people involved; I hope they know something that I don't. 

or else its back to the good ol' days....and i aint talking the 90s: